I think we can all agree that we have been on a bit of a wild ride over the last 12 months in the real estate market. When the Fed decided to change its trajectory on interest rates in mid-2022, it created some chaos and confusion.

When big changes happen, it is a natural reaction to pause and wait for some certainty of how things will land. This happened when the pandemic hit, too. People paused in March and April of 2020 and once May settled in the market went bonkers. I have found that gathering data, whether it’s real-time data or studying historical trends, in order to make sense of it all is incredibly helpful to create clarity and empower strong decisions.

I am committed to studying the data on behalf of my clients and I am also fortunate to have Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist as a source to help guide this research. He speaks to the predictions that were made at the beginning of this year by several industry experts and breaks down their varied theories in this recent article. As a testament to the importance of gathering the data and applying knowledgeable analysis are the now renewed predictions from all of these sources. They are now very much more aligned with one another and in agreement that prices are not headed in a downward spiral, but are in fact on the rise year-over-year. Data is powerful!

Below is a chart I created with hyper-local data reflecting both King and Snohomish counties’ median prices over the last 18 months in relationship to the rising interest rates. While we are off the peak of 2022 when rates were at 5%, we are only slightly lower and up quite significantly from the bottom when rates hit 7%. Proof that the market is sustaining the higher rates is that we have found ourselves back near the 7% this summer and prices have not faltered.

Would the market welcome a drop in the rate? Absolutely! When this happens, which is predicted, we will see buyer demand increase. What we will also see is additional inventory come to market as would-be home sellers will be more comfortable relinquishing their low rate to indulge their need or want for a different home. The high rates are keeping inventory low in a high-rate environment, which is supporting price stabilization and growth. Simply put, the sky is not falling.

The market continues to churn, we are not in a free fall, and prices are stable. If you’ve thought about a move, consider the data and please ask me to help you gain understanding. I can adjust the graph featured here with your local zip code or city to give you an even more thorough look at your investment.

Real estate moves are most often a result of life changes. If you have found yourself questioning whether your four walls currently meet your needs, let’s talk! I will assess your goals and apply the data in an understandable way to help guide the best decision for you today or down the road.

The need for food assistance has never been greater due to the end of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program’s (SNAP) Emergency Allotments and soaring food prices. As a result, more and more families across America are facing hunger. Our food banks are experiencing a surge in visitors and struggling to meet the increased demand.

The good news is that this incredible network of go-givers can do something about it!
Fueled by the collective generosity that Windermere is so well known for, I’m rallying my network to come together to help us towards our goal of raising $50,000.

I would be very grateful if you considered contributing to our campaign through our donation website. 

Thank you for your generosity!

One of the reasons why we are fortunate to have Matthew Gardener as our Chief Economist at Windermere is his transparency. Every year, Matthew makes predictions for the coming year based on his monumental research and years of experience. Just this week, he reviewed his 2023 predictions and recorded the video below. Most of his predictions were spot on and only two were slightly off. That is pretty good considering crystal balls don’t exist.

In the video recap below, he covers the trajectory of home prices, interest rates, inventory levels, the shift of the work-from-home trend, zoning changes, and affordability. All of these factors play into people making informed decisions about their real estate. He is certainly an asset that I can rely upon to help me guide my clients.

Overall, it is important to note that prices are heading in a positive direction, interest rates may take a bit longer to settle and inventory remains tight. I am seeing buyer demand return to the market and prices have grown since the first of the year.

He also mentions that real estate is local and that trends can vary by location. That is where I can help you. I am deeply invested in understanding the market in the communities and neighborhoods that surround us. If you are curious about how the trends relate to your real estate goals, please reach out. It is always my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

Windermere Community Service Day

This is the 8th year that my office has spent our Community Service Day working to put fresh produce on the tables of local families who need a little help. We work with the Snohomish Garden Club, planting over a half-acre of veggies and fruits that will be harvested into thousands of pounds of fresh produce over the summer and into the fall.

If you’d like to pitch in, you can donate to our Summer Food Drive, or bring donations to my office, through August 4th. All donations will go to Volunteers of America Western WA food banks.

Since 1984, Windermere associates have dedicated a day of work to complete neighborhood improvement projects as part of Windermere’s Community Service Day. After all, real estate is rooted in our communities. And an investment in our neighborhoods gives us all a better place to call home.

If we let the media determine the mood regarding the housing market, it would be time to shut the party down and call it a night. I’m here to report that we are still dancing and there is a lot to celebrate! While it is not all shiny and bright (it never is), there is a pattern of consistent growth and the sky is far from falling. The environment has changed from a year ago and we are still moving to the beat of the drum despite some rain (insert dancing emoji here).

The latest headline from the Seattle Times claims that prices have tumbled from last year. While prices are down from a year ago the story is much more detailed and it is far from a tumble. The DJ (The Fed) played some songs (hiked rates) that cleared the dancefloor for a bit, but the hits are playing now and demand is strong! The headline I have included above is a much more accurate depiction of the pricing journey over the last year and a half, and it is actually pretty great.

In King County, the median price peaked in May 2022 at $1M and is currently at $919,000 (May 2023), which is down 8% from peak to current. Prices hit bottom in January 2023 at $800,000 which was down 20% (the actual tumble) from the peak but are now up 15% from the bottom!

In Snohomish County, the median price peaked in April 2022 at $830,000 and is currently at $767,000 (May 2023), which is down 8% from peak to current. Prices hit bottom in February 2023 at $685,000 which was down 17% (the actual tumble) from the peak but are now up 12% from the bottom!

This was a relatively quick correction that is trending in a positive direction as the market gets used to higher interest rates. Quantitative Easing could not last forever and rates had to go up to combat inflation. During the same time frame detailed above, interest rates dramatically changed.

In May 2022, they averaged 5.5% (the peak) and in January 2023 they averaged 6.75% (the bottom). In fact, they started 2022 at 3.5%, a level we will likely never see again! Currently, rates are hovering in the high 6% and are predicted to slowly recede as we enter the second half of 2023. Proof that buyers have become conditioned to the new normal of rates is that prices have grown from the start of 2023 (January – May 2023): 14% in King County and 11% in Snohomish County, despite rates remaining in the 6% and at times cresting 7%. When they go down to the lower 6% or even the high 5%, expect prices to climb at a faster rate. Will there be a buyer mosh pit? Buyers should be weighing these effects as they choose when to act. Rates can always be re-financed, but the sale price cannot.

While the homeowners that purchased during those peak months have some time before they regain their home’s value, it will happen. We are a year out from the peak and the last time we had a correction in 2018 it took 17 months to recover. That subsection of sales aside and equity levels are strong. Imagine the hope you feel when watching the first dance at a wedding to the classic It’s A Wonderful World; the party is just getting started. Prices are up in King County by 27% from March 2019 to March 2023 and in Snohomish County up 46%. Ten-year gains are astounding at 140% in King County and 179 % in Snohomish County.

This leads me to my biggest takeaway; real estate moves are dictated by life changes. Maybe the DJ plays Sweet Home Alabama and you rush to the dance floor because it’s time to move closer to family, or Marry You inspires you to take the plunge into married life as you spin the night towards household formation. My point is, change drives demand.

While real estate is an investment, it is also where we live. It is our refuge, our security, and our joy. We usher in pleasure and pain in the four walls we call home and at some point, that will lead to wanting something more, less, or just different out of our home. I understand that these moves may have been put on hold while the DJ figured out the crowd. Currently, the dance floor is becoming more crowded. The attendees at the party are realizing that we only live once and that we are not going back to the discotheque of 3-4% interest rates; they are ready to boogie!

The dancing/party metaphor was a fun way to tell a complicated and emotional story. This correction and recovery have been a bit hard and confusing, especially after the disruption of the pandemic. We are just getting our dancing shoes broken in again. If life has met you at a crossroads of change and you are curious about how real estate relates to this for you, please reach out. I am deeply invested in the data and my service is always rooted in educating my clients. It is my goal to help the people I serve navigate smooth transitions that are financially stable and strong and match their homes to their hearts.

Windermere Community Service Day

Since 1984, Windermere associates have dedicated a day of work to complete neighborhood improvement projects as part of Windermere’s Community Service Day. After all, real estate is rooted in our communities. And an investment in our neighborhoods gives us all a better place to call home.

This Friday, my office will spend the day with the Snohomish Garden Club working to put fresh produce on the tables of local families who need a little help. We will plant over a half-acre of veggies and fruits that will be harvested over the summer and into the fall.

If you’d like to pitch in, you can donate to our Summer Food Drive, or bring donations to my office, through August 4th. All donations will go to Volunteers of America Western WA food banks.

On April 23rd the Washington State Legislature adjourned after passing 10 new bills that will affect housing. Some of the bills are geared toward creating more transparency around brokerage transactions, some are intended to institute more opportunities for building density to provide more affordable housing, and some are more regulatory to help guide and ease the permitting process for building and development.

The bills that will improve real estate brokerage services are centered in transparency and cleaning up some laws that do not trend with market conditions. As of January 1, 2024, all real estate brokers will be required to engage in a buyer service agreement with the buyers they work with, similar to the requirement of having a listing agreement with a seller (SB 5191). These service agreements, better known as Buyer Agency Agreements (BAA) will address compensation, exclusivity, the duration of the relationship, and establish written consent for dual agency. This will create clearly defined broker representation for buyers from the onset of the relationship.

Short-term seller rent-backs after closing are now carved out of the landlord-tenant act if the rent-back is less than 90 days (SHB 1070). This will ease the angst involved with tenant rights, as the goal of a rent-back is to create a convenient transitionary period that intends for the seller to vacate, minimizing their tenant rights. This change aligns with the trends in the marketplace and makes this solution-based approach less tenuous. Lifetime listing agreements were also shortened (SSB 5399).

Washington State ranks last in the number of housing units per family nationally and officials project that the state will need roughly one million new homes by 2044. Many of the bills that passed last month will create policies to help provide more housing units and affordability. Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist has been speaking about our state’s lack of affordability for years and shares his thoughts here on the HB 1110 which will allow for the development of middle housing.

HB 1110, SB 5258, HB 1042, and HB 1337 were all created to create more housing units. HB 1110 addresses middle housing, SB 5258 modifies several laws relating to the construction of condos and townhomes, HB 1042 enables the creation of housing in existing, underutilized buildings, and HB 1337 will make it easier to build Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) in urban growth areas.

SB 5412, SB 5290, and HB 1293 are intended to ease the permitting and design review processes when applying for a building permit. These should help streamline and accelerate getting from point A to point B on a building project. With the goal of providing more housing units, the backend systems needed to be reevaluated to meet these goals in a timely fashion while adhering to important guidelines and procedures.

Lastly, HB 1474 will increase the document recording fees by $100 to fund a new state program to provide down payment and closing cost assistance to people, or heirs, impacted by racially restrictive covenants. This program is set to raise $75 million per year to improve housing affordability. The State also committed over $1.1 billion in budget funds to work towards investing in housing supply and homelessness prevention.

Click here for a detailed review of each new bill and the budget changes. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed about the real estate market and in this case, knowing the direction our state is headed with the laws surrounding real estate and housing. If you have additional questions or want to discuss how these changes may affect your housing goals, please reach out.

ATTENTION GARDENERS: Windermere Community Service Day is coming and we’d love your help!

Since 1984, Windermere associates have dedicated a day of work to complete neighborhood improvement projects as part of Windermere’s Community Service Day. After all, real estate is rooted in our communities. And an investment in our neighborhoods gives us all a better place to call home.

Our office will spend June 9th with the Snohomish Garden Club working to put fresh produce on the tables of local families who need a little help. We will plant over a half-acre of veggies and fruits that will be harvested over the summer and into the fall.

If you’d like to pitch in, we are looking for additional veggie starts. Let us know if you have some starts already going or if you would like to prepare some now that you would be willing to donate.

The garden specifically needs:

• Scallions
• Snow/Pod Peas (please no shelling peas)
• Chard
• Lettuce (the food banks require headed varieties, rather than loose-leaf)
• Squash (any kind, EXCEPT yellow crookneck)
• Cabbage/Broccoli/Kohlrabi/Cauliflower/Collards/Kale
• Peppers (early maturing varieties work great: ~70-day range)
• Herbs (never enough Basil and Parsley!)
• Flowers (marigolds, nasturtiums, or any annuals)

It is very important that consumers understand the difference between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates. Long-term rates involve home mortgages such a conventional 30-year fixed, Jumbo, FHA, and VA loans. Short-term rates involve car loans, credit cards, and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs). While both types of rates have gone up over the course of the last year, they have not had the same trajectory.

In an effort to combat inflation and slow spending, the Fed has made consistent increases to the short-term rate over the last year. I am sure you are running out of fingers on your hands to count the number of times you have heard this as a top story on the news: “The Fed Raises Rates!”. A huge misconception has been that the rates the Fed are referring to are mortgage rates.

As you can see from the chart above, the short-term rate has had a consistent upward trend and the long-term rate has had a more volatile journey. In some cases, when the Fed has increased the short-term rate, the long-term rate has gone down! My point in all of this is to illustrate that what the media reports is not always about mortgage rates and that it is important to stay connected to accurate data.

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist recently recorded a video update featured below that speaks to some of the misconceptions about interest rates, specifically mortgage rates. Many consumers are confused and misinformed which is dangerous. Investing in real estate is the single largest wealth-building opportunity and to not be accurately connected to the latest trends could get in the way of a successful financial picture.

Prices in many markets have already bottomed out from the 2022 correction and mortgage rates have come down off the peak. In some areas, we are already seeing appreciation again! This quote from Matthew sums up where we are headed. “Myself, and every economist I know, believe that rates will slowly pull back as we move through 2023, and I haven’t seen a single forecast suggesting that mortgage rates will rise to a level this country hasn’t seen in decades”.

With inflation slowing and year-over-year CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers becoming less extreme, mortgage rates will start to soften. In fact, there are some important reports coming up in May that will tell this story. Real estate is a long-term hold investment that has been the cornerstone of wealth in our country. The wave we have had to ride post-pandemic related to supply chain issues and consumer demand is coming to the shore and real estate will remain an investment safe haven.

Another point to consider is while real estate is an investment is it also where you live. Life changes, good or bad, lead to moves. All this to say, remain nimble by being well-informed. Knowledge empowers strong decisions and accuracy matters. You can count on me to provide you with the information you need to successfully navigate your real estate decisions. Please reach out if you’d like to discuss how the current trends relate to your goals.

Shred Day & Food Drive was a huge success!

Big thank you to everyone who came by to utilize our free shredding services and drop off food or cash donations for the Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks!

We filled two trucks of shredding and collected over 2,000 pounds of food and $3,372 which will go to our neighbors in need. Thank you for your generosity!

ATTENTION GARDENERS: Windermere Community Service Day is coming and we’d love your help!

Since 1984, Windermere associates have dedicated a day of work to complete neighborhood improvement projects as part of Windermere’s Community Service Day. After all, real estate is rooted in our communities. And an investment in our neighborhoods gives us all a better place to call home.

Our office will spend the day with the Snohomish Garden Club working to put fresh produce on the tables of local families who need a little help. We will plant over a half-acre of veggies and fruits that will be harvested over the summer and into the fall.

If you’d like to pitch in, we are looking for additional veggie starts. Let me know if you have some starts already going or if you would like to prepare some now that you would be willing to donate. Our planting day is Friday, June 9^th; I can arrange the details with you for drop off or pick up!

The garden specifically needs:

• Scallions
• Snow/Pod Peas (please no shelling peas)
• Chard
• Lettuce (the food banks require headed varieties, rather than loose-leaf)
• Squash (any kind, EXCEPT yellow crookneck)
• Cabbage/Broccoli/Kohlrabi/Cauliflower/Collards/Kale
• Peppers (early maturing varieties work great: ~70-day range)
• Herbs (never enough Basil and Parsley!)
• Flowers (marigolds, nasturtiums, or any annuals)

Three key elements to pay attention to when assessing prices and the real estate market.

As we round out the first quarter of 2023, three real-time trends to pay close attention to in order to truly understand what is happening in the real estate market are absorption data, interest rates, and inventory levels. Right now, we are in the midst of the market heating up due to seasonality, pent-up buyer demand, and rates finding their new normal. The media will often lag in reporting the latest information (pending sale data) and will latch onto closed sale data, which is outdated. I am here to keep you on the frontline of market activity so you are connected to the most current data to keep you well informed.

Let’s start with absorption data. Month-to-date (3/1/23-3/27/23), days on market are shrinking and sale price to original list price ratios are climbing. This means that houses are selling faster and negotiations are becoming more competitive for buyers. I was able to determine that these trends are fluid from Snohomish County to King County by analyzing four zip codes: 98296 (City of Snohomish), 98020 (Edmonds), 98155 (East Shoreline), 98117 (Ballard).

Available inventory is constricting due to an increase in absorption and new listings lagging. As we head into spring, we will see a seasonal uptick in new listings which will be welcomed by a healthy buyer audience. Month-to-date, inventory levels based on pending sales show a seller’s market (0-2 months). You calculate months of inventory by taking the number of available homes and dividing it by the number of pending sales. If no new homes came to market the trend suggests we would sell out of homes in this amount of time. Month-to-date the actual number of homes available in each zip code is quite limited and a welcome sign for more new listings as we head into Spring.  Again, I pulled the data for the four zip codes to represent a sampling of both Snohomish and King Counties.

Both of the trends above have been determined by buyers becoming more comfortable with the new normal of interest rates. The correction in the market that we experienced in 2022 was a result of a 3-point increase in interest rates. After prices adjusted to levels that would work with the higher rates, buyers started to return to the market. 2-3% and maybe even 4% interest rates will be folklore we tell our grandchildren about. People that want to make a move have come to terms with adapting to the higher rates and making these important life transitions. Today’s rates are much more in line with the average over the last 30 years.

At the start of 2023, the 30-year fixed mortgage was at 6.48%, then dropped to 5.99% in early February, peaked at 7.1% in early March, and is now back down to 6.54% at press time. Rates have been volatile as the Fed tries to manage inflation. You can access a video below from Matthew Gardner explaining the effect of the Fed and the recent bank failures on interest rates and the real estate market overall.

One item to note is that mortgage rates are long-term interest rates, and when you hear about the Fed raising rates they are referring to short-term rates such as car loans, credit cards, and home equity loans. The media does not make that distinction, often confusing the public. In fact, in some cases when the short-term rate has been increased, we have seen mortgage rates drop. Here is a great website to follow to get a real-time read on rates.

Interest rates finding their way, the psychological acceptance of the new normal, and people needing to make moves to adapt to their life changes have led to prices starting to stabilize and even grow in some markets. I pulled the month-to-date median price data for the four zip codes and it appears prices are leveling and growth is happening or will be in the near future. Bear in mind, that the bottom often comes in the form of a bounce before there is a consistent straight shot up.  All signs are pointing to recovery from the correction in these areas noted. This growth will be added to the immense long-term price gains we have seen. Currently, 93% of all homeowners in the U.S. have positive home equity and 48% of homeowners have more than 50% equity.

During this time of change, it is important that each neighborhood and price point is researched individually. From the four zip code breakdowns above, it is clear that the trends vary. When I am asked the question, “How’s the Market?”, I am always curious to know what you have heard and what you want to learn about. Sweeping statements are dangerous and I am committed to diving into the data to educate my clients on how the trends affect their investments and their lifestyle.

With the market correction of 2022 in the rearview mirror and the recovering market of 2023 upon us it is important to understand that opportunity abounds. That opportunity is rooted in research. Solid research and discerning the data gathered help empower strong decisions and build trust. This is my process and my passion and it is all about helping people! If you are curious about how the latest trends match up with your investment and lifestyle goals, please reach out and we can dive in.

You’re invited to our annual Paper Shredding Event & Food Drive. We partner with Confidential Data Disposal to provide a safe, eco-friendly way to reduce your paper trail and help prevent identity theft.

Saturday, April 15th, 10AM to 2PM*
4211 Alderwood Mall Blvd, Lynnwood
Bring your sensitive documents to be professionally destroyed on-site. Limit 10 file boxes per visitor.

This is a paper-only event. No x-rays, electronics, recyclables, or any other materials.

We will also be collecting non-perishable food and cash donations to benefit Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks. Donations are not required, but are appreciated. Hope to see you there! *Or until the trucks are full

The financial benefits of owning real estate significantly outweigh the option of renting. Renting is certainly a must for some, and is what one may have to do while they build up to becoming a homeowner. Becoming a homeowner requires solid employment, good credit, and some type of down payment. Savings can all be built over time and if achieved can provide incredible long-term financial growth by becoming a down payment on a home. In fact, many people think you need a 20% down payment in order to purchase a home and that is just not the case.  There are various loan programs available requiring much less than 20% down.

The savings of your nest egg that you would put into a home purchase is the single most powerful investment vehicle to build household wealth and financial security. Did you know that the average net worth of a homeowner is 40 times higher than one of a renter? There are many factors that play into this statistic.  Take in my outline below as well as the video link below from Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist who also weighs in on this subject.

Over time, your mortgage payment becomes easier to afford. Fixed mortgage payments do not go up, but rent inevitably does. While your mortgage stays fixed your income often increases, making the monthly payment easier to handle.

Real estate is a solid long-term investment. Historical home price appreciation is on your side. The historical average is 3-5%, and in some cases, that figure has been much higher. Only once, during the Great Recession, did we see multiple-year price declines. However, the people that held onto those homes since that time have been handsomely rewarded with phenomenal equity. Real estate is a long-term hold investment that provides shelter and financial opportunity.

You cannot live in your stock certificate. Real estate is an investment that you can touch, feel, smell, live in, and improve! You have to live somewhere and allocate a portion of your income to shelter. Why not pay your shelter budget towards an asset that is growing for your financial future? You can also make improvements to your property that you can enjoy which will also increase the value of the asset. Diversifying your investments is important, stocks are a natural option, but real estate should be in the mix as well. I have even seen first-time buyers keep their starter home as a rental, move on to their next home and start to build their own real estate portfolio.

Every mortgage payment goes towards paying down your loan principle. Right now, mortgage rates are up a bit, leading to conversations about the impact of rates. One thing I know for sure is that the interest rate on rent is 100%! None of that money ever comes back to you. Your mortgage payment goes back into your asset and becomes a forced savings account. This piles your money safely away all while your asset is appreciating year-over-year which builds long-term wealth.

Owning real estate provides tax benefits. Depending on the state you live in, you can write off your real estate taxes and mortgage interest. This can offset your tax burden and save you significant money every year. There are also capital gains tax exemptions on your primary residence that you have lived in for at least two years of the last 5 years (make sure to consult your tax expert on the details). You can have tax-free gains of up to $250,000 for a single person and up to $500,000 for a married couple. This is a wonderful opportunity to move your wealth towards your future when planning for big lifestyle improvements such as retirement.

I will leave you with this: it can seem overwhelming to take on the task of buying your first home or to prepare to own again after renting. Start by understanding that shopping in the price range you can afford matters. Often times people want to get their forever home right off the bat and that makes the accomplishment of becoming a homeowner much harder. Figure out how much you can afford now and put your nest egg to work sooner rather than later to start building wealth. Maybe it is a small condo that fits your budget now, but over time the money saved and the equity built can turn into the down payment needed to purchase your forever home.

Owning real estate is a step-by-step journey that takes time and sacrifice. Your patience and commitment will be rewarded with compounded savings which will lead to building long-term wealth. It also creates a fond memory lane of that first condo or small house that you loved making a home, which then became the vehicle to afford the next home that better suited your lifestyle. If you are curious about the prospect of owning real estate or have a special person in your life who is poised to become a homeowner, please reach out. It is my goal to help people understand the process, align them with a trusted lender, help them make strong financial decisions, and match their living situation to their lifestyle.

You’re invited to our annual Paper Shredding Event & Food Drive. We partner with Confidential Data Disposal to provide a safe, eco-friendly way to reduce your paper trail and help prevent identity theft.

Saturday, April 15th, 10AM to 2PM*
4211 Alderwood Mall Blvd, Lynnwood
Bring your sensitive documents to be professionally destroyed on-site. Limit 10 file boxes per visitor.

This is a paper-only event. No x-rays, electronics, recyclables, or any other materials.

We will also be collecting non-perishable food and cash donations to benefit Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks. Donations are not required, but are appreciated. Hope to see you there!

*Or until the trucks are full

Markets change fast! We experienced a substantial shift in 2022 with the first half of the year feeling like a completely different market than the second half of the year. A 3-point increase in interest rate was the main culprit along with inflation and affordability for the 2022 market correction we experienced.

A market correction is defined by prices reverting by 10% or more. In January 2022 the median price in Snohomish County started at $700,000 then peaked at $830,000 in April, and ended the year at $689,000 (-17%). In King County, the median price started at $794,000 then peaked at $1,000,000 in May, and ended the year at $820,000 (-18%). Bear in mind that the December 2022 median price was also up 17% over the January 2021 median price in Snohomish County and up 12% in King County. This illustrates that the correction was only off the peak of spring 2022 not off of the strong equity that was built prior to that intense run-up.

As we find ourselves in mid-Q1 2023 all data points and anecdotal stories are pointing to the worst of the market correction being behind us and yet again, another shift. Interest rates peaked in November 2022 at just over 7% and have since come down. Experts are predicting rates to find themselves under 6% as we travel through the easing of inflation in 2023.

The well-defined price correction and interest rates lowering have brought many buyers back to the market. In fact, pending sales in Snohomish County in January 2023 were up 52% over December 2022 and were up 3% over January 2022. Even more so an indicator: pending sales are up 80% month-to-date (MTD) in February over January 2023! In King County, pending sales in January 2023 were up 63% over December 2022 and were up 2% over January 2022, and up 61% MTD over January 2023.

This pent-up demand has come at a time when listing inventory is seasonally scarce and has tilted the market from a balanced market back to a seller’s market in many areas. Months of inventory is how we define market conditions. 0-2 months is a seller’s market, 2-4 months a balanced market, and 4 months plus a buyer’s market. In Snohomish County, we ended 2022 with 2.3 months of inventory based on pending sales, and in January 2023 had 1.2 months, and MTD is sitting at 0.9 months. In King County, we ended 2022 with 2.6 months of inventory based on pending sales, and in January 2023 had 1.3 months, and MTD is sitting at 1.1 months.

After months of price reductions and searching for the bottom, we are now starting to come across some multiple offers and price increases. This is leaving clues that the bottom was reached and that we are now stabilizing and looking toward the predicted growth that 2023 has to offer. Buyers are eager for additional selection and will welcome the spring influx of new listings. If sellers are ready, they should not hesitate. Should rates lower as the new listings arrive, sellers will be well supported by a willing buyer audience ready to absorb any growth in inventory.

Buyers need to understand that rates and prices are closely related and that waiting for rates to hit a certain point may be detrimental to securing a stabilized price. Many buyers are heading into today’s market with a refinance in mind down the road. They are aware that prices will rise as rates lower, so they are looking to obtain a lower price now with a higher rate and once the rate hits their desired level, they will refinance to lower their payment all while holding on to their lower basis point.

For example, if a buyer bought now at $750,000 with 20% down and a rate of 6.5% their monthly principal and interest payment would be $3,792. If a year from now, rates are at 5.5% and prices are up 5% and that same buyer refinances, they will save $364 a month on their payment and $37,500 in principle. This would also be $192 lower than what the payment would be at the appreciated price with the lower rate!

Real estate moves are driven by life changes. It was completely understandable that many buyers took a pause as the market corrected. Now that the market is showing signs of stabilizing these life changes are pushing buyers to find the home that better fits their lifestyle. Sellers need to keep in mind that their homes need to be priced right and show up to the market well-appointed and properly prepared to get the best results.

We’ve learned a lot over the last year. Once the historical 3-4% interest rate disappeared, consumers had to adapt to the new normal. Now that consumer sentiment is leaning towards a resurgence in demand, opportunity abounds for sellers who are ready to make a move. Please reach out if you are curious about the market trends and want to discuss your goals. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed and empower strong decisions. 2023 is going to be a great year for real estate, I can feel it!

At Windermere we help people buy and sell homes, but we also help build community. I’m proud to support the Windermere Foundation which has raised over $50 million in the past 34 years for low-income and homeless families right here in our local community.